For most of the readers of Airplay Monitor, 2003 brought their introduction to HitPredictor. In February, our predictions began appearing in these pages. Now, nearly one year later, we're taking a look back to see how we did and what it all means.

Although the HitPredictor chart was new this year, the system that tests and assesses the songs was already well-defined before the first results were published. Thousands of titles were tested, and a whole new vocabulary and scoring system were created to aid in interpreting the results. Eventually, we found that we had created a system of unparalleled accuracy in predicting the callout potential of songs prior to airplay.

As an increasing number of people in radio and records are relying on HitPredictor, it's important that we take a look back at the almost year's worth of charts we've amassed, as well as a look forward. Were we right about every prediction? Most of the time. But what about the songs that weren't hits? Why do some never reach their full potential? Every song has a story.

We've picked a handful of our predictions from the past year and present them here. Many of them are success stories. Some fell through the cracks. Fortunately, most of the cream rose to the top. HitPredictor made the call on most of the biggest records of the year. Some of them were surprises, while others were born to be hits. We've included a few of each in our year-end wrap-up: the hits, the misses and the surprises among the songs that tested with top 10 potential.

Trapt, "Headstrong" (Warner Bros.) Top 40 Mainstream HP score: 75.4 Monitor peak: No. 4

We love the surprises the best. Hindsight is 20/20. Anyone can look at this song now and say, "That's a hit," but we knew that it was ready for prime time after it had enjoyed success at modern rock. This song clicked with top 40 listeners that normally may shy away from a chorus this heavy. Our score of 75.4 left us with no choice but to call it as we saw it.

OutKast, "The Way You Move" (Arista) Top 40 Mainstream HP score: 67.9 Monitor peak: building

2003 could be called the year of OutKast. This is our most recent prediction on this list. Our listeners knew that this duo had the power to sustain two hit singles at the same time, and that is exactly what it has done.

Ludacris, "Stand Up" (IDJMG) R&B/Hip-Hop HP score: 72.5 Monitor peak: No. 1

Ludacris is one of the hottest artists in any format. But after the lukewarm performance of "Act a Fool," the fate of "Stand Up" was unclear. Well, obviously this single has far surpassed its predecessor by now, crossing into multiple formats. HitPredictor called it at R&B/hip-hop before it bulleted to the top of that chart.

Uncle Kracker Featuring Dobie Gray, "Drift Away" (Lava) Adult Top 40 HP score: 96.4 Monitor peak: No. 2

This song is one that tested for Lava Records months before it was ever released to radio. Before the first single was worked, we knew that this one was a smash waiting in the wings. We were glad to eventually get the opportunity to share our results with radio. A song with scores like this one needed to get on the air.

Audioslave, "Show Me How to Live" (Epic) Modern Rock HP score: 70 Monitor peak: No. 4

Audioslave has earned its status as a supergroup with a string of hits. This was the second modern rock HitPredictor for the band this year, and it subsequently found its place at the top of the charts.

Chingy, "Holidae In" (Capitol) R&B/Hip-Hop HP score: 94.1 Monitor peak: No. 2

Chingy was one of the breakout stories of 2003. We started reporting R&B/hip-hop about halfway through the year. Fortunately, we started soon enough to give a heads-up on this one. With this follow-up to his smash "Right Thurr," Chingy quickly showed he had staying power.

Sugarcult, "Bouncing Off theWalls" (Artemis) Top 40 Mainstream HP score: 70 Monitor peak: Did not chart

This was one of our earliest published predictions. The song scored a solid top 10 but never got off the ground at radio. A few stations tried it out (most notably KHTS San Diego, which had success with it), but it didn't stick. In early 2003, the pop/punk sound was hot, so the record's early demise can't be blamed on burnout. Listeners loved it - the ones that heard it, anyway.

Linkin Park, "Numb" (Warner Bros.) Modern Rock HP score: 91.8 Monitor peak: No. 1

This song was one of those rare occasions where everything just lined up. We tested it first long before its impact date at either modern rock or top 40, and it proved to be the hit that our system said it would be. Our follow-up tests only confirmed those early results. The song's scores were through the roof across the board.

Christina Aguilera Featuring Lil' Kim, "Can't Hold Us Down" (RCA) Top 40 Mainstream HP score: 81.6 Monitor peak: No. 3

Few could have predicted the phenomenal success that Aguilera enjoyed this year. By the time this single impacted, she was already three hits deep into her "Stripped" album. That would have been enough for anyone. We knew that she had more in store, though. This is another example of one that we tested months early. We knew way ahead of time that each track on Aguilera's album was a hit. "Can't Hold Us Down" was no exception.

Jagged Edge, "Walked Outta Heaven" (Columbia) R&B/Hip-Hop HP score: 89.5 Monitor peak: No. 2

With a score of 89.5, there is little doubt where a song like this one was headed. The numbers told us that this record was hot. Jagged Edge was bound for the R&B/hip-hop charts once again. Callout later confirmed this.

Sarah McLachlan, "Fallen" (Arista) Adult Top 40 HP score: 89 Monitor peak: No. 5

McLachlan had been away from the spotlight for a while, but our listeners immediately picked up where they left off with her. They knew that she was back as she headed for the adult top 40 chart. Multiple tests confirmed that this record was bound for the top 10.

Jewel, "Intuition" (Atlantic) Adult Top 40 HP score: 69.6 Monitor peak: No. 5

Jewel may have changed her look and sound, but listeners at adult top 40 did not change how they felt about her music. "Intuition" scored big at adult top40 at HitPredictor.

Evanescence, "Going Under" (Wind-up) Top 40 Mainstream HP score: 78.7 Monitor peak: Did not chart

After the stratospheric success of "Bring Me to Life" in nearly every radio format known to man, our results indicated more of the same for the band's "Going Under." It tested like a hit for HitPredictor. Early believers at radio showed strong potential scores in their callout (like WWWQ [Q100] Atlanta and KRBE Houston). Inexplicably, however, when the label met early resistance at top 40, it moved on to the next single, "My Immortal" (which was also a HitPredictor). Our score shows what could have been.

Coldplay, "Clocks" (Capitol) Top 40 Mainstream HP score: 76 Monitor peak: No. 21

Our results showed this song to have the same potential at top 40 mainstream as it had already proved at adult top 40. So why didn't it fly? Listeners loved it. A few stations gave it more than 1,000 spins (WHYI [Y100] Philadelphia, WSTR Atlanta, KRBE and WSSX [95SX] Charleston, S.C.). Capitol believed in it and took it to top 40 a second time. In the end, not enough PDs read the signs and gave the song the shot that it likely deserved.

Kelly Clarkson, "Miss Independent" (RCA) Top 40 Mainstream HP score: 84.4 Monitor peak: No. 1

This is probably not the type of single most people expected from this "American Idol" as the debut from her first album. Listeners didn't care what people expected, though. The funky declaration of independence tested like a smash early on for us and ended up at No. 1 on the charts, proving Clarkson is more versatile than anyone could have guessed.

In Summary . . . As we've said, every song has a story, and these are but a few of the stories from this year. They were chosen because they give an accurate representation of this year's results. HitPredictor has given the industry a new weapon in its arsenal. Honestly, the system even surprises us at times. The scores are more than just numbers. They are a view into the minds and ears of the listeners. Listeners are telling us not only what they like but also what they want to hear. Looking back at some key points as we've done here tells as much about what should have been as what was. No one knows yet what 2004 may hold in store. But we predict that there will be even more interesting stories ahead.