Monday, October 8, 2012

Lots of HitPredictors this week as the labels step up their releases for the fourth quarter. Established artists dominate as Ke$ha, Rihanna and Bruno Mars are all HitPredictors at Top 40 with the first singles from their upcoming albums. Look for these and other multi-format superstar releases such as the new single from Adele from the upcoming James Bond film, "Skyfall," to dominate radio in the coming months.

Mainstream Top 40
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Score
Up72.57
 New Die young
Kesha (Kemosabe/RCA/RMG)
Up67.75
 New Diamonds
Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJMG)
Down88.28
 New Locked Out Of Heaven
Bruno Mars (Atlantic)

Rhythmic Top 40
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Score
Up77.20
 New I Cry
Flo Rida (Poe Boy/Atlantic)
Up102.40
 New Diamonds
Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJMG)
Up65.18
 New Gangnam Style
Psy (YG/SchoolBoy/Republic)

Urban
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Score
Up77.50
 New Swimming Pools (Drank)
Kendrick Lamar (T.D.E./Interscope)
Up73.94
 New No Worries
Lil Wayne (Republic)

Hot AC
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Score
Up93.00
 New Between The Raindrops (feat Natasha Bedingfield)
Lifehouse (Interscope)
Up74.11
 New I Will Wait
Mumford and Sons (Glassnote)

Mainstream AC
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Score
Up76.17
 New What Could Have Been Love
Aerosmith (Columbia)

Alternative
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Score
Up69.49
 New Radioactive
Imagine Dragons (KidinaKorner/Interscope)

Active Rock
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Score
No new adds in Active Rock

Country
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Score
Up78.21
 New Begin Again
Taylor Swift (Big Machine)

About the HitPredictor Charts

These charts show new releases that tested with hit potential prior to airplay, ranked in order of current weekly Mediabase airplay detections.

Mainstream Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Maroon 5
2
Up
Kelly Clarkson
3
Down
Adele
4
Down
Pink
5
Bruno Mars

Rhythmic Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Adele
2
Up
Usher
3
Down
Beyonce
4
Justin Timberlake
5
Up
Mariah Carey

R&B/Hip Hop
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Beyonce
2
Usher
3
Up
Mariah Carey
4
Up
Keri Hilson
5
Up
Brandy

Hot AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Daughtry
3
Down
Pink
4
Adele
5
Up
Lifehouse

Mainstream AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Journey
3
Down
Lady Antebellum
4
Up
Adele
5
Up
Celine Dion

Alternative
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
White Stripes
2
Up
Pearl Jam
3
Adele
4
Everclear
5
Down
Foo Fighters

Active Rock
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Godsmack
2
Up
Disturbed
3
Up
Shinedown
4
Three Days Grace
5
Down
Foo Fighters

Country
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Carrie Underwood
2
Brad Paisley
3
Up
Martina McBride
4
Down
Tim McGraw
5
Up
Dierks Bentley

Every week we track songs before and after they become Hitpredictors, and we call them our Sleepers and Developing & Proven Hits. "Developing Hits" are a select number of songs that show early research potential, or strong upward spin moves at the stations they are played at. "Proven Hits" are songs that show Top 10 research and/or Top 10 spins at multiple key stations in a format.

Mainstream Top 40
One Direction is proving they're not a one-hit wonder as their third single is developing strongly at Top 40 radio. The current singles from established stars Ne-Yo and Train are now proven hits at Top 40, both with top 10 callout. Corey Carter's WIXX in Appleton, WI is the spin leader on Train, ranked #2 this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpLive While We're Young
One Direction (SYCO/Columbia)
HitPredictor on Oct 8, 2012 -- Movers: up over 1300 spins this week.
TW: 20, LW: 25, Spins: +1350
Proven Hits
Score
Down50 Ways To Say goodbye
Train (Columbia)
HitPredictor on Aug 27, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 15 top 40 stations have it in the top 10 this week.
85.09
TW: 19, LW: 18, Spins: +344
UpLet Me Love You
Ne-Yo (Motown/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Oct 8, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 potential with early believers Top 10 Spins: 29 top 40 stations have top 10 airplay, including heavy hitters KIIS/LA and Z100/NY.
TW: 16, LW: 17, Spins: +767

Rhythmic Top 40
Kanye West has yet another developing hit at Rhythmic, following up his #1 "Mercy." WJJS in Roanoke leads the way on Maroon 5, ranked #1 this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpClique (feat Jay Z and Big Sean)
Kanye West (GOOD Music/Def Jam/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Sep 30, 2012 -- Movers: up about 400 spins this week.
71.79
TW: 13, LW: 16, Spins: +442
Proven Hit
Score
UpOne More Night
Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone/Interscope)
HitPredictor on Sep 24, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 potential with early believers. Top 10 Spins: 10 stations on the Rhythmic panel have it in their top 10 most-played this week.
89.60
TW: 30, LW: 36, Spins: +171

Urban
The current singles by superstar Kanye and the much talked-about Frank Ocean are now Proven Hits in the Urban format. Al Payne's WERQ/Baltimore and Tony Q.'s WJKS/Wilmington, DE are the spin leaders for Ocean this week, #2 at both stations.
Developing Hits
Score
HoldingDont Judge Me
Chris Brown (RCA)
HitPredictor on Sep 17, 2012 -- Movers: up over 150 spins this week.
101.30
TW: 21, LW: 21, Spins: +191
UpDive
Usher (RCA)
HitPredictor on Sep 24, 2012 -- Movers: up close to 150 spins this week.
99.47
TW: 22, LW: 24, Spins: +129
Proven Hits
Score
DownThinking About You
Frank Ocean (Def Jam/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Jul 30, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: It's already top 10 at 31 stations on the Urban panel.
71.11
TW: 12, LW: 11, Spins: +209
UpClique (feat Jay Z and Big Sean)
Kanye West (GOOD Music/Def Jam/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Sep 30, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 38 stations on the panel.
67.50
TW: 9, LW: 12, Spins: +497

Mainstream AC
Credit American Idol with another find as top finisher Phillips now has a Proven Hit at Mainstream AC.
Developing Hit
Score
UpMy Oh My
Tristan Prettyman (Capitol)
HitPredictor on Oct 8, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer at AC, up close to 100 spins this week.
TW: 18, LW: 22, Spins: +94
Proven Hit
Score
UpHome
Phillip Phillips (19/Interscope)
HitPredictor on Aug 27, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in national callout this week.
67.00
TW: 13, LW: 14, Spins: +119

Active Rock
Three artists have moved into the proven category with their current singles.
Proven Hits
Score
UpStand Up
All That Remains (Prosthetic/Razor & Tie)
HitPredictor on Sep 30, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in national callout this week.
79.09
TW: 20, LW: 21, Spins: +82
UpEnemies
Shinedown (Atlantic)
HitPredictor on Oct 8, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in national callout this week.
TW: 9, LW: 12, Spins: +180
UpHeaven Nor Hell
Volbeat (Republic)
HitPredictor on Oct 8, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 in national callout this week.
TW: 14, LW: 18, Spins: +109

Country
Brad Paisley's single is one of the biggest movers this week at Country radio.
Developing Hit
Score
UpSouthern Comfort Zone
Brad Paisley (Arista Nashville)
HitPredictor on Sep 30, 2012 -- Movers: the #2 gainer at AC, up close to 800 spins this week.
82.69
TW: 22, LW: 27, Spins: +614