Monday, October 22, 2012

The Lumineers' "Ho Hey," already at #3 on the Alternative chart, is quickly crossing over to other formats. The single was named a HitPredictor last week for Hot AC and this week it's a HitPredictor at Top 40. And new Disney/Hollywood star Bridgit Mendler's "Ready or Not," last week's Top 40 Sleeper, due to early activity at some key stations, now earns its HitPredictor stripes at Top 40. Among the other artists named HitPredictors in a busy week are Brandy at Rhythmic, in a major return to the charts, and the brand new single from Kelly Clarkson's forthcoming album, Greatest Hits-Chapter 1, at Hot AC.

Mainstream Top 40
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Score
Up70.14
 New Ho Hey
The Lumineers (Dualtone)
Up65.45
 New Ready Or Not
Bridgit Mendler (Hollywood)

Rhythmic Top 40
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Score
Up81.93
 New Put It Down
Brandy (RCA)
Up79.80
 New Locked Out Of Heaven
Bruno Mars (Atlantic)

Urban
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Score
Up91.36
 New Representin (feat Kelly Rowland)
Ludacris (DTG/Def Jam/IDJMG)
Up75.00
 New Wicked Games
The Weeknd (Republic)

Hot AC
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Score
Up68.00
 New Catch My Breath
Kelly Clarkson (RCA)
Up88.00
 New Locked Out Of Heaven
Bruno Mars (Atlantic)

Mainstream AC
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Score
Up77.79
 New Good Time (with Carly Rae Jepsen)
Owl City (Interscope/Republic)
Down87.00
 New 50 Ways To Say goodbye
Train (Columbia)

Alternative
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Score
No new adds in Alternative

Active Rock
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Score
Up65.38
 New Let Yourself Go
Green Day (Warner Bros)

Country
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Score
No new adds in Country

About the HitPredictor Charts

These charts show new releases that tested with hit potential prior to airplay, ranked in order of current weekly Mediabase airplay detections.

Mainstream Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Kelly Clarkson
2
Down
Maroon 5
3
Up
Pink
4
Down
Adele
5
Bruno Mars

Rhythmic Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Usher
2
Down
Adele
3
Beyonce
4
Up
Mary J Blige
5
Up
Chris Brown

R&B/Hip Hop
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Beyonce
2
Up
Keri Hilson
3
Down
Usher
4
Up
Brandy
5
Down
Mariah Carey

Hot AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Adele
2
Daughtry
3
Down
Kelly Clarkson
4
Up
Maroon 5
5
Lifehouse

Mainstream AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Celine Dion
3
Lady Antebellum
4
Up
Carrie Underwood
5
Up
Billy Joel

Alternative
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
White Stripes
2
Up
Foo Fighters
3
Up
Everclear
4
Down
Pearl Jam
5
Up
Nine Inch Nails

Active Rock
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Godsmack
2
Disturbed
3
Up
Green Day
4
Up
Slipknot
5
Up
Pearl Jam

Country
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Brad Paisley
2
Down
Carrie Underwood
3
Martina McBride
4
Tim McGraw
5
Up
Kenny Chesney

Every week we track songs before and after they become Hitpredictors, and we call them our Sleepers and Developing & Proven Hits. "Developing Hits" are a select number of songs that show early research potential, or strong upward spin moves at the stations they are played at. "Proven Hits" are songs that show Top 10 research and/or Top 10 spins at multiple key stations in a format.

Mainstream Top 40
Flo Rida has had a string of huge hits and is just coming off a #1 at Top 40, "Whistle." Coming right on its heels is the new single, "I Cry," and it's already a Developing Hit. Meanwhile, Christina Aguilera and Bruno Mars are previewing their upcoming albums, "Lotus" and "Unorthodox Jukebox," with first singles, both of which are now Proven Hits at Top 40.
Developing Hit
Score
UpI Cry
Flo Rida (Poe Boy/Atlantic)
Movers: a top 10 gainer, up over 700 spins this week.
TW: 22, LW: 27, Spins: +848
Proven Hits
Score
UpLocked Out Of Heaven
Bruno Mars (Atlantic)
HitPredictor on Oct 8, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 10 top 40 stations have it in the top 10 this week, led by #7 for John Ivey at KIIS.
88.28
TW: 16, LW: 21, Spins: +1545
HoldingYour Body
Christina Aguilera (RCA)
Callout: top 5 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 8 top 40 stations have top 10 airplay, including #7 for Tony Bristol at WPRO and #8 for Rob Miller at WKTU.
TW: 19, LW: 19, Spins: +25

Rhythmic Top 40
Swedish hitmaker Dr. Luke partnered with Sony Music to run his own label, Kemosabe, last year. His signings include Ke$ha and Juicy J, both of which reach Developing Hits status at Rhythmic radio this week with their new singles. And Rihanna's "Diamonds" has quickly become a Proven Hit at Rhythmic.
Developing Hits
Score
UpDie Young
Ke$ha (Kemosabe/RCA)
Movers: a top 10 gainer, up almost 300 spins this week.
TW: 26, LW: 35, Spins: +278
UpBandz A Make Her Dance
Juicy J (Kemosabe/Columbia)
Movers: a top 10 gainer, up about 300 spins this week.
TW: 20, LW: 22, Spins: +304
Proven Hit
Score
UpDiamonds
Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Oct 8, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 29 stations on the Rhythmic panel have it in their top 10 most-played this week, led by KBFM, where it's #5.
102.40
TW: 9, LW: 13, Spins: +612

Urban
Rihanna is breaking out at several formats simultaneously with "Diamonds." Already a Proven Hit this week at Rhythmic, it's also a Developing Hit at Urban. Kelly Rowland is now a Proven Hit with her latest, "Ice," featuring Lil Wayne.
Developing Hit
Score
UpDiamonds
Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJMG)
Movers: a top 5 gainer, up about 300 spins this week.
TW: 29, LW: 44, Spins: +338
Proven Hit
Score
UpIce (feat Lil Wayne)
Kelly Rowland (Republic)
HitPredictor on Sep 9, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: It's top 10 at 17 stations on the Urban panel, including three #1 reports this week.
104.13
TW: 12, LW: 13, Spins: +187

Hot AC
Last week's HitPredictors, Adele and the Lumineers, moved quickly to become Developing Hits this week.
Developing Hits
Score
UpHo Hey
The Lumineers (Dualtone)
HitPredictor on Oct 15, 2012 -- Movers: up over 100 spins this week.
98.50
TW: 26, LW: 29, Spins: +139
UpSkyfall
Adele (Columbia)
HitPredictor on Oct 15, 2012 -- Movers: the #2 gainer at Hot AC, up over 400 spins this week.
70.50
TW: 17, LW: 22, Spins: +468
Proven Hit
Score
HoldingOh Love
Green Day (Reprise/Warner Bros)
Callout: top 10 in national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 5 stations this week, including #7 at KMXP.
TW: 25, LW: 25, Spins: -18

Mainstream AC
Adele is moving quickly at both Hot AC, where it's a Developing Hit this week, and Mainstream AC, where it is already a Proven Hit this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpSome Nights
fun. (Fueled By Ramen/RRP)
Movers: a top 15 gainer at Mainstream AC.
TW: 21, LW: 23, Spins: +47
Proven Hit
Score
UpSkyfall
Adele (XL/Columbia)
Callout: top 5 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: it's already top 10 at 16 Mainstream AC stations. The spin leader this week is WDOK, where it's #4 for Dave Popovich.
TW: 14, LW: 16, Spins: +240

Alternative
Three bands from overseas share the spotlight this week, Ireland's Two Door Cinema Club, Joy Formidable from Wales, and Iceland's Of Monsters and Men.
Developing Hits
Score
UpSleep Alone
Two Door Cinema Club (Glassnote)
HitPredictor on Aug 13, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer at Alternative, up over 70 spins this week.
79.07
TW: 19, LW: 20, Spins: +58
UpThis Ladder is Ours
Joy Formidable (Canvasback/Atlantic)
Movers: a top 10 gainer, up over 60 spins this week.
TW: 35, LW: 43, Spins: +66
Proven Hit
Score
HoldingMountain Sound
Of Monsters and Men (Republic)
Callout: top 10 in national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 9 stations this week, with the spin leader being WRFF, where it's #2 for John Allers.
TW: 21, LW: 21, Spins: +56

Active Rock
The two bands featured in Active Rock this week are veteran acts. Deftones have three Platinum albums to their credit and Chevelle has one. Their current singles continue their strings of hits.
Developing Hit
Score
UpTempest
Deftones (Reprise/Warner Bros)
Movers: the #2 gainer at Active Rock, up about 200 spins this week.
TW: 22, LW: 29, Spins: +209
Proven Hit
Score
UpSame Old Trip
Chevelle (Epic)
Callout: top 5 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 2 top 10 reports this week, #8 at KQRC and #9 at WIIL.
TW: 19, LW: 22, Spins: +111

Country
Gary Allan moves from a HitPredictor last week to a Developing Hit this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpEvery Storm Runs Out Of Rain
Gary Allan (MCA Nashville)
HitPredictor on Oct 15, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer at Country, up about 300 spins this week.
81.90
TW: 30, LW: 32, Spins: +238
Proven Hit
Score
UpGoodbye In Her Eyes
Zac Brown Band (Southern Ground/Atlantic)
Callout: top 5 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 8 Country stations have top 10 airplay this week, led by #3 at WHKO.
TW: 20, LW: 22, Spins: +374