Monday, October 29, 2012

Nicki Minaj, now already causing a stir as a judge on American Idol, has a stellar week at Top 40. Not only is her new single, "Va Va Voom," a HitPredictor this week, but she is also featured on this week's other HitPredictor, the brand-new single from Justin Bieber. Justin is really coming into his own as a credible radio artist this year. The first single from his current album hit the top 10 in airplay at Top 40, then he followed up with his first top 5 airplay hit, "As Long As You Love Me" (currently #2 at Top 40). Now his third single, "Beauty and the Beat," is a HitPredictor this week and likely to follow those two singles up the charts.

Mainstream Top 40
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Score
Up67.19
 New Beauty And A Beat (feat Nicki Minaj)
Justin Bieber (Island/IDJMG)
Up75.00
 New Va Va Voom
Nicki Minaj (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic)

Rhythmic Top 40
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Score
Up75.34
 New Wicked Games
The Weeknd (Republic)

Urban
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Score
Down76.66
 New Triumphant (feat Rick Ross and Meek Mill)
Mariah Carey (Island/IDJMG)
Up88.48
 New Diamonds
Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJMG)

Hot AC
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Score
Up95.40
 New Try
Pink (RCA)

Mainstream AC
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Score
Up65.64
 New I Look To You (feat R Kelly)
Whitney Houston (RCA)

Alternative
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Score
No new adds in Alternative

Active Rock
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Score
Up86.87
 New Carry On
Avenged Sevenfold (Warner Bros)
Up73.71
 New Turning Into You
The Offspring (Columbia)

Country
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Score
No new adds in Country

About the HitPredictor Charts

These charts show new releases that tested with hit potential prior to airplay, ranked in order of current weekly Mediabase airplay detections.

Mainstream Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Kelly Clarkson
2
Down
Maroon 5
3
Up
Pink
4
Down
Adele
5
Bruno Mars

Rhythmic Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Usher
2
Down
Adele
3
Beyonce
4
Up
Mary J Blige
5
Up
Chris Brown

R&B/Hip Hop
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Beyonce
2
Up
Keri Hilson
3
Down
Usher
4
Up
Brandy
5
Down
Mariah Carey

Hot AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Adele
2
Daughtry
3
Down
Kelly Clarkson
4
Up
Maroon 5
5
Lifehouse

Mainstream AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Celine Dion
3
Lady Antebellum
4
Up
Carrie Underwood
5
Up
Billy Joel

Alternative
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
White Stripes
2
Up
Foo Fighters
3
Up
Everclear
4
Down
Pearl Jam
5
Up
Nine Inch Nails

Active Rock
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Godsmack
2
Disturbed
3
Up
Green Day
4
Up
Slipknot
5
Up
Pearl Jam

Country
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Brad Paisley
2
Down
Carrie Underwood
3
Martina McBride
4
Tim McGraw
5
Up
Kenny Chesney

Every week we track songs before and after they become Hitpredictors, and we call them our Sleepers and Developing & Proven Hits. "Developing Hits" are a select number of songs that show early research potential, or strong upward spin moves at the stations they are played at. "Proven Hits" are songs that show Top 10 research and/or Top 10 spins at multiple key stations in a format.

Mainstream Top 40
At Top 40, the Lumineers move quickly, after being a HitPredictor last week, to a Developing Hit this week. This song is quickly turning into a multi-format hit. It reached #1 at Alternative radio and is a Proven Hit this week at Hot AC. Also this week at Top 40, another multi-format hit, "Home" by American Idol winner Phillip Phillips, is now a Proven Hit as it closes in on the top 20 on the chart.
Developing Hit
Score
UpHo Hey
The Lumineers (Dualtone)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Movers: a top 15 gainer, up over 500 spins this week.
70.14
TW: 28, LW: 35, Spins: +557
Proven Hit
Score
UpHome
Phillip Phillips (19/Interscope)
HitPredictor on Aug 13, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 airplay at 21 top 40 stations this week, led by a #1 rank for Rich Davis at KDWB.
70.40
TW: 21, LW: 23, Spins: +658

Rhythmic Top 40
Both of last week's HitPredictors at Rhythmic move quickly to become Developing Hits this week. Brandy's long, successful career has been reignited with her current hit, "Put It Down." It went to #2 at Urban radio, and now it's crossing quickly to Rhythmic radio, where it's a Developing Hit this week, along with Bruno Mars' "Locked Out of Heaven." And Korean phenom Psy, having already conquered top 40 radio and the sales charts, with his #1-selling single, is now a Proven Hit at Rhythmic radio, also.
Developing Hits
Score
UpPut It Down
Brandy (RCA)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer at Rhythmic radio, up over 200 spins this week.
81.93
TW: 21, LW: 25, Spins: +243
UpLocked Out Of Heaven
Bruno Mars (Atlantic)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Movers: a top 15 gainer, up about 150 spins this week.
79.80
TW: 30, LW: 36, Spins: +179
Proven Hit
Score
DownGangnam Style
Psy (YG/SchoolBoy/Republic)
HitPredictor on Oct 8, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 14 stations on the Rhythmic panel have it in their top 10 most-played this week, led by KLUC, where it's #3 for Cat Thomas.
65.18
TW: 19, LW: 17, Spins: +1

Urban
In a very unusual occurrence, Mariah Carey is a HitPredictor at Urban this week and also a Proven Hit. Usually a song will earn HitPredictor honors several weeks or even months before it becomes a Proven Hit. But Mariah's "Triumphant" is already the #1 best-testing song in national callout, the same week that it's also a HitPredictor.
Developing Hits
Score
UpYoung And Gettin' It
Meek Mill feat. Kirko (MMG/Warner Bros.)
Movers: the #1 gainer at Urban radio, up about 500 spins this week.
TW: 17, LW: 21, Spins: +491
UpRemember You
Wiz Khalifa feat. The Weeknd (Rostrum/Atlantic)
Movers: a top 5 gainer at Urban radio, up over 250 spins this week.
TW: 28, LW: 37, Spins: +259
Proven Hit
Score
DownTriumphant (feat Rick Ross and Meek Mill)
Mariah Carey (Island/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Oct 29, 2012 -- Callout: #1 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: it's top 10 at 8 stations on the Urban panel, including #5 at WBTP and WJUC.
76.66
TW: 29, LW: 27, Spins: -67

Hot AC
Last week's HitPredictors at Hot AC, Kelly Clarkson and Bruno Mars, moved quickly to become Developing Hits this week. And last week's Developing Hits, Adele and the Lumineers, also move quickly up to Proven Hits this week.
Developing Hits
Score
UpLocked Out Of Heaven
Bruno Mars (Atlantic)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Movers: the #1 gainer at Hot AC, up over 400 spins this week.
88.00
TW: 12, LW: 16, Spins: +534
UpCatch My Breath
Kelly Clarkson (RCA)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Movers: the #2 gainer at Hot AC, up almost 400 spins this week.
68.00
TW: 24, LW: 36, Spins: +426
Proven Hits
Score
UpHo Hey
The Lumineers (Dualtone)
HitPredictor on Oct 15, 2012 -- Callout: #1 in national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 10 Hot AC stations this week, led by #2 for Michael Martin at KLLC.
98.50
TW: 23, LW: 27, Spins: +222
UpSkyfall
Adele (Columbia)
HitPredictor on Oct 15, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 11 Hot AC stations this week, led by #2 for Mary Ellen Kachinske at WMTX.
70.50
TW: 15, LW: 17, Spins: +315

Mainstream AC
Quick upward movement for 2 songs at Mainstream AC, also. The Owl City/Carly Rae Jepsen duet was a HitPredictor last week at Mainstream AC. It's already top 5 at Top 40 radio and Top 10 at Hot AC, and it's a Developing Hit this week at Mainstream AC. Train, the other HitPredictor at AC last week, jumps right up to a Proven Hit this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpGood Time (with Carly Rae Jepsen)
Owl City (Interscope/Republic)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer this week at Mainstream AC, up almost 50 spins.
77.79
TW: 16, LW: 20, Spins: +208
Proven Hits
Score
Up50 Ways To Say goodbye
Train (Columbia)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: it's top 10 at 7 Mainstream AC stations, including #5 at KYIS.
87.00
TW: 19, LW: 22, Spins: +65
HoldingOne More Night
Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone/Interscope)
HitPredictor on Sep 17, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: it's top 10 at 10 Mainstream AC stations, led by #1 at WQLH.
70.75
TW: 17, LW: 17, Spins: +108

Alternative
Fun. Is on to its third single at Alternative after hitting #1 with second single "Some Nights" at both Alternative and Hot AC. New single "Carry On" is a Developing Hit at Alternative, along with "Thrift Shop" from Seattle artist Ben Haggerty, better known as Macklemore. He teams up with producer Ryan Lewis for his new single, from Macklemore's sophomore album.
Developing Hits
Score
UpCarry On
Fun. (Fueled By Ramen/RRP)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Alternative, up about 80 spins this week.
TW: 26, LW: 29, Spins: +72
UpThrift Shop
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis feat. Wanz (Macklemore/ADA)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Alternative, up about 80 spins this week.
TW: 49, LW: 78, Spins: +83
Proven Hits
Score
HoldingSleep Alone
Two Door Cinema Club (Glassnote)
HitPredictor on Aug 13, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 4 Alternative stations this week, led by #2 at KRXP.
79.07
TW: 19, LW: 19, Spins: +30
UpWe Come Running
Youngblood Hawke (Republic)
Callout: top 15 in national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 16 Alternative stations this week, including #4 at for Mike Kaplan at KNDD.
TW: 9, LW: 10, Spins: +103

Active Rock
Deftones moves from a Developing Hit last week at Active Rock to a Proven Hit this week. Meanwhile, three artists share Developing Hit status, superstars Green Day and Kid Rock, and L.A. heavy metal band Five Finger Death Punch, who already have two gold albums in their resume.
Developing Hits
Score
HoldingLet Yourself Go
Green Day (Warner Bros)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Movers: a top 5 gainer at Active Rock, up over 160 spins this week.
65.38
TW: 13, LW: 13, Spins: +166
UpLet's Ride
Kid Rock (Atlantic/RRP)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Active Rock, up almost 100 spins this week.
TW: 24, LW: 25, Spins: +94
UpThe Pride
Five Finger Death Punch (Prospect Park)
Movers: a top 5 gainer at Active Rock, up over 150 spins this week.
TW: 25, LW: 27, Spins: +145
Proven Hit
Score
UpTempest
Deftones (Reprise/Warner Bros)
Callout: top 10 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 5 top 10 reports at Active Rock this week, led by #6 at KRXQ.
TW: 19, LW: 22, Spins: +212

Country
Gary Allan has had three great weeks with his single, going from a HitPredictor two weeks ago, to a Developing Hit last week, to a Proven Hit this week. Randy Houser joins him as a Proven Hit this week with "How Country Feels."
Developing Hit
Score
UpTornado
Little Big Town (Capitol Nashville)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Country, up about 500 spins this week.
TW: 26, LW: 34, Spins: +525
Proven Hits
Score
UpEvery Storm Runs Out Of Rain
Gary Allan (MCA Nashville)
HitPredictor on Oct 15, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 6 Country stations are the leaders with top 15 airplay this week, including #12 at KKBQ.
81.90
TW: 22, LW: 28, Spins: +434
UpHow Country Feels
Randy Houser (Stoney Creek)
Callout: top 10 in national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 airplay at 19 Country stations, led by #1 at WNCY at WWYZ.
TW: 17, LW: 21, Spins: +568