Monday, November 5, 2012

Two superstars score HitPredictors at Top 40 with their newest singles and both were Hot AC HitPredictors first, Kelly Clarksons Catch My Breath and Pinks Try. Pink was a HP at Hot AC last week, and Kelly two weeks ago. For Nicki Minaj, Va Va Voom was first a HitPredictor last week at Top 40, and now this week at Rhythmic. Ciara returns to the charts with Sorry, and it earns HitPredictor honors at Urban this week. And long-time rock hitmakers Matchbox Twenty and Kid Rock are HitPredictors this week at Hot AC and Active Rock, respectively, with their new singles.

Mainstream Top 40
Click for full chart
Score
Up84.62
 New Catch My Breath
Kelly Clarkson (RCA)
Up102.83
 New Try
Pink (RCA)

Rhythmic Top 40
Click for full chart
Score
Up73.16
 New Va Va Voom
Nicki Minaj (YMCMB/Republic)
Up68.94
 New R I P
Rita Ora (Roc Nation/Columbia)

Urban
Click for full chart
Score
Up68.10
 New Sorry
Ciara (LaFace/JLG)

Hot AC
Click for full chart
Score
Up103.50
 New Overjoyed
Matchbox Twenty (Atlantic)

Mainstream AC
Click for full chart
Score
No new adds in Mainstream AC

Alternative
Click for full chart
Score
No new adds in Alternative

Active Rock
Click for full chart
Score
Holding66.94
 New Lets Ride
Kid Rock (Atlantic/RRP)

Country
Click for full chart
Score
Up88.28
 New Let There Be Cowgirls
Chris Cagle (Bigger Picture)

About the HitPredictor Charts

These charts show new releases that tested with hit potential prior to airplay, ranked in order of current weekly Mediabase airplay detections.

Mainstream Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Kelly Clarkson
2
Down
Maroon 5
3
Up
Pink
4
Down
Adele
5
Bruno Mars

Rhythmic Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Usher
2
Down
Adele
3
Beyonce
4
Up
Mary J Blige
5
Up
Chris Brown

R&B/Hip Hop
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Beyonce
2
Up
Keri Hilson
3
Down
Usher
4
Up
Brandy
5
Down
Mariah Carey

Hot AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Adele
2
Daughtry
3
Down
Kelly Clarkson
4
Up
Maroon 5
5
Lifehouse

Mainstream AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Celine Dion
3
Lady Antebellum
4
Up
Carrie Underwood
5
Up
Billy Joel

Alternative
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
White Stripes
2
Up
Foo Fighters
3
Up
Everclear
4
Down
Pearl Jam
5
Up
Nine Inch Nails

Active Rock
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Godsmack
2
Disturbed
3
Up
Green Day
4
Up
Slipknot
5
Up
Pearl Jam

Country
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Brad Paisley
2
Down
Carrie Underwood
3
Martina McBride
4
Tim McGraw
5
Up
Kenny Chesney

Every week we track songs before and after they become Hitpredictors, and we call them our Sleepers and Developing & Proven Hits. "Developing Hits" are a select number of songs that show early research potential, or strong upward spin moves at the stations they are played at. "Proven Hits" are songs that show Top 10 research and/or Top 10 spins at multiple key stations in a format.

Mainstream Top 40
At Top 40, the Lumineers' offbeat, folk-inspired "Ho Hey" is looking like a smash. After being a HitPredictor just two weeks ago, it moved to a Developing Hit last week and this week it's a Proven Hit. And last week's two HitPredictors, Nicki Minaj's "Va Va Voom" and Justin Bieber's "Beauty and a Beat" (featuring Nicki Minaj) are move quickly up to Developing Hits this week.
Developing Hits
Score
UpVa Va Voom
Nicki Minaj (YMCMB/Republic)
HitPredictor on Oct 29, 2012 -- Movers: the #1 gainer at Top 40, up over 1000 spins this week.
75.00
TW: 25, LW: 37, Spins: +1110
UpBeauty And A Beat (feat Nicki Minaj)
Justin Bieber (Island/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Oct 29, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer, up almost 700 spins this week.
67.19
TW: 33, LW: 43, Spins: +709
Proven Hit
Score
UpHo Hey
The Lumineers (Dualtone)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 potential with early believers this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 airplay at 4 top 40 stations this week, led by a #3 rank for Leo Baldwin at WNOU and #4 for Rich Davis at KDWB.
70.14
TW: 24, LW: 28, Spins: +570

Rhythmic Top 40
Up-and-coming star Frank Ocean is among the Developing Hits at Rhythmic this week, while Ke$ha's "Die Young" makes the crossover from a Proven Hit at Top 40 to the same status at Rhythmic.
Developing Hits
Score
UpWho Booty
Jonn Hart featuring French Montana (Epic)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Rhythmic radio, up almost 300 spins this week.
TW: 27, LW: 33, Spins: +295
UpYoung and Gettin It
Meek Mill feat. Kirko (MMG/Warner Bros.)
Movers: a top 10 gainer, up over 200 spins this week.
TW: 29, LW: 36, Spins: +248
UpThinkin Bout You
Frank Ocean (Def Jam/IDJMG)
Movers: a top 5 gainer, up around 400 spins this week.
TW: 19, LW: 26, Spins: +384
Proven Hits
Score
UpTurn On The Lights
Future (Epic)
HitPredictor on Sep 30, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 potential with early believers this week. Top 10 Spins: 35 stations on the Rhythmic panel have it in their top 10 most-played this week, with six #1 reports.
83.19
TW: 9, LW: 10, Spins: +180
DownDie Young
Ke$ha (Kemosabe/RCA)
Callout: top 10 potential with early believers callout this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 7 Rhythmic stations so far, led by #7 for Bobby Smith at WJHM.
TW: 1842, LW: 1733, Spins: +109

Urban
...
Developing Hits
Score
UpRepresentin (feat Kelly Rowland)
Ludacris (DTG/Def Jam/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer at Urban radio, up almost 300 spins this week.
91.36
TW: 19, LW: 22, Spins: +294
UpWicked Games
The Weeknd (Republic)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer at Urban radio, up over 200 spins this week.
75.00
TW: 21, LW: 24, Spins: +205
UpTrust and Believe
Keyshia Cole (Geffen)
Movers: a top 5 gainer at Urban radio, up almost 400 spins this week.
TW: 30, LW: 41, Spins: +273
Proven Hit
Score
DownMy Moment
DJ Drama (Aphilliates/eOne Music)
HitPredictor on Sep 9, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: it's top 10 at 7 stations on the Urban panel, including WGZB and WKKV.
69.00
TW: 23, LW: 21, Spins: +22

Hot AC
Bruno Mars' "Locked Out of Heaven" has exploded at several formats. At Hot AC, he moved up quickly from a HitPredictor two weeks ago, to a Developing Hit last week, to a Proven Hit this week. And Pink's new single is also breaking out at several formats. At Hot AC, it was a HitPredictor last week and moves to a Developing Hit this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpTry
Pink (RCA)
HitPredictor on Oct 29, 2012 -- Movers: a top 5 gainer at Hot AC, up almost 400 spins this week.
95.40
TW: 24, LW: 30, Spins: +353
Proven Hits
Score
HoldingLocked Out Of Heaven
Bruno Mars (Atlantic)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 26 Hot AC stations this week; he's #1 for Mary Ellen Kachinske at WMTX.
88.00
TW: 12, LW: 12, Spins: +399
HoldingI Will Wait
Mumford and Sons (Glassnote)
HitPredictor on Oct 8, 2012 -- Callout: #1 in potential with early believers this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 7 Hot AC stations this week, led by #2 at KCDA.
74.11
TW: 22, LW: 22, Spins: +190

Mainstream AC
Kelly Clarkson's "Catch My Breath" is breaking out strongly at 3 formats. It's a HitPredictor this week at Top 40, was a Developing Hit last week at Hot AC, and this week is a Developing Hit at Mainstream AC.
Developing Hits
Score
UpCatch My Breath
Kelly Clarkson (RCA)
Movers: a top 5 gainer this week at Mainstream AC, up over 50 spins.
TW: 27, LW: 32, Spins: +42
UpGood Morning Beautfiul
Luke McMaster & Jim Brickman (Mood/Brickhouse/Ekul)
Movers: a top 5 gainer this week at Mainstream AC, up around 100 spins.
TW: 20, LW: 22, Spins: +99

Alternative
...
Developing Hit
Score
UpTightrope
Walk The Moon (RCA)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Alternative, up over 70 spins this week.
TW: 24, LW: 27, Spins: +78
Proven Hits
Score
UpTrojans
Atlas Genius (Republic)
HitPredictor on Jul 9, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 16 Alternative stations this week, led by #2 for Christy Taylor at XTRA.
70.84
TW: 11, LW: 12, Spins: +141
DownThe Pit
Silversun Pickups (Dangerbird)
Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 6 Alternative stations this week, led by #4 at KRXP.
TW: 846, LW: 599, Spins: +247

Active Rock
...
Developing Hits
Score
UpOne Light
3 Doors Down (Universal)
Movers: the #1 gainer at Active Rock this week, up around 150 spins.
TW: 30, LW: 37, Spins: +137
UpDemons
Candlelight Red (Imagen/Grand Pro-Mo)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Active Rock, up over 50 spins this week.
TW: 31, LW: 33, Spins: +58
Proven Hits
Score
HoldingCarry On
Avenged Sevenfold (Warner Bros)
HitPredictor on Oct 29, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 33 top 10 reports at Active Rock this week, led by #1 at KHTQ.
86.87
TW: 10, LW: 10, Spins: +58
UpThe Pride
Five Finger Death Punch (Prospect Park)
Callout: top 5 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: it's top 10 at 5 Active Rock stations so far, including #8 at KBPI.
TW: 22, LW: 25, Spins: +93

Country
Veteran Brad Paisley has another Proven Hit at Country Radio with "Southern Comfort Zone." Hunter Hayes follows up his #1 hit "Wanted" with "Somebody's Heartbreak." It's starting off strongly, joining The Band Perry's "Better Dig Two" as a Developing Hit this week.
Developing Hits
Score
DownBetter Dig Two
The Band Perry (Repulic Nashville)
Movers: a top 5 gainer at Country, up around 500 spins this week.
TW: 35, LW: 0, Spins: +558
UpSomebody's Heartbreak
Hunter Hayes (Atlantic/RRP)
Movers: a top 5 gainer at Country, up almost 500 spins this week.
TW: 29, LW: 34, Spins: +479
Proven Hit
Score
UpSouthern Comfort Zone
Brad Paisley (Arista Nashville)
HitPredictor on Sep 30, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 43 Country stations have it in their top 10 most-played this week, led by #3 for John Thomas at KYGO.
82.69
TW: 14, LW: 15, Spins: +266