Monday, November 12, 2012

This week brings us several artists that are showing an impressive ability to cross over from one format to another. Hunter Hayes has already conquered the country world with his #1 hit, "Wanted," and he seems poised to cross over to the pop market as his song becomes a HitPredictor at both Top 40 and Hot AC this week. Imagine Dragons' "It's Time" was a #3 hit at Alternative, it's currently top 20 at Hot AC, and now this week it becomes a HitPredictor at Top 40. And Justin Bieber's "Beauty and the Beat," a HitPredictor at Top 40 two weeks ago, becomes a HitPredictor this week at Rhythmic.

Mainstream Top 40
Click for full chart
Score
Up78.79
 New Wanted
Hunter Hayes (Atlantic/RRP)
Up66.57
 New Its Time
Imagine Dragons (KidinaKorner/Interscope)

Rhythmic Top 40
Click for full chart
Score
Up67.33
 New Beauty And A Beat (feat Nicki Minaj)
Justin Bieber (Island/IDJMG)

Urban
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Score
No new adds in Urban

Hot AC
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Score
Up72.75
 New Wanted
Hunter Hayes (Atlantic/RRP)

Mainstream AC
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Score
No new adds in Mainstream AC

Alternative
Click for full chart
Score
Up89.04
 New Carry On
FUN (Fueled By Ramen/RRP)

Active Rock
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Score
No new adds in Active Rock

Country
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Score
Up102.80
 New The Only Way I Know
Jason Aldean (Broken Bow)

About the HitPredictor Charts

These charts show new releases that tested with hit potential prior to airplay, ranked in order of current weekly Mediabase airplay detections.

Mainstream Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Pink
3
Down
Maroon 5
4
Up
Taylor Swift
5
Down
Adele

Rhythmic Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Usher
2
Up
Beyonce
3
Down
Adele
4
Up
Keri Hilson
5
Up
Justin Timberlake

R&B/Hip Hop
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Beyonce
2
Keri Hilson
3
Up
Brandy
4
Down
Usher
5
Up
Mary J Blige

Hot AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Adele
2
Up
Christina Perri
3
Kelly Clarkson
4
Maroon 5
5
Up
Pink

Mainstream AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Tim McGraw
3
Lady Antebellum
4
Up
Billy Joel
5
Up
Chicago

Alternative
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
White Stripes
2
Foo Fighters
3
Up
Green Day
4
Pearl Jam
5
Up
Three Days Grace

Active Rock
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Godsmack
2
Up
Green Day
3
Up
Slipknot
4
Up
Pearl Jam
5
Down
Disturbed

Country
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
George Strait
2
Up
Martina McBride
3
Up
Tim McGraw
4
Down
Brad Paisley
5
Up
Jason Aldean

Every week we track songs before and after they become Hitpredictors, and we call them our Sleepers and Developing & Proven Hits. "Developing Hits" are a select number of songs that show early research potential, or strong upward spin moves at the stations they are played at. "Proven Hits" are songs that show Top 10 research and/or Top 10 spins at multiple key stations in a format.

Mainstream Top 40
It looks like Pink is following up her #1 "Blow Me (One Last Kiss)" with another smash. "Try" quickly moves from a HitPredictor last week to a Developing Hit this week. And Irish band The Script have another hit on their hands as "Hall of Fame," featuring will.i.am, is a Proven Hit at Top 40. The song went to #1 in the U.K. in September.
Developing Hit
Score
UpTry
Pink (RCA)
HitPredictor on Nov 5, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer, up over 1000 spins this week.
102.83
TW: 31, LW: 43, Spins: +1026
Proven Hit
Score
UpHall of Fame
The Script Feat. will.i.am (Epic)
Callout: top 5 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: the early top 40 spin leader is WMGB in Macon, Ga., where it's #9 this week.
TW: 25, LW: 28, Spins: +350

Rhythmic Top 40
Superstars Nicki Minaj and Bruno Mars are in the Rhythmic spotlight this week. Nicki's "Va Va Voom" is exploding at both the Rhythmic and Top 40 formats, moving at Rhythmic from a HitPredictor last week to a Developing Hit this week. And Bruno's "Locked Out of Heaven" ascends in near-record time from a HitPredictor three weeks ago to a Developing Hit two weeks ago to a Proven Hit this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpVa Va Voom
Nicki Minaj (YMCMB/Republic)
HitPredictor on Nov 5, 2012 -- Movers: the #2 gainer at Rhythmic this week, up over 600 spins.
73.16
TW: 18, LW: 34, Spins: +622
Proven Hit
Score
UpLocked Out Of Heaven
Bruno Mars (Atlantic)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in RateTheMusic national callout this week and top 10 potential with early believers. Top 10 Spins: 11 stations on the Rhythmic panel have it in their top 10 most-played this week, including #2 for Greg Williams at KDGS.
79.80
TW: 21, LW: 26, Spins: +297

Urban
Two of the biggest stars of the Urban format, T.I. and Lil Wayne, team up with the single "Ball" from T.I.'s upcoming eighth studio album, to be released December 18th. "Ball" is a Developing Hit at Urban radio this week. And to no one's surprise, Rihanna's "Diamonds" is now a Proven Hit at Urban, after already earning that honor at Rhythmic radio.
Developing Hits
Score
UpSorry
Ciara (LaFace/JLG)
HitPredictor on Nov 5, 2012 -- Movers: a top 5 gainer at Urban radio, up over 200 spins this week.
68.10
TW: 24, LW: 26, Spins: +234
UpBall
T.I. Feat. Lil Wayne (Grand Hustle/Atlantic)
Movers: the #1 gainer at Urban radio this week, up over 400 spins.
TW: 22, LW: 25, Spins: +438
Proven Hit
Score
DownDiamonds
Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Oct 29, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: it's top 10 at 4 stations on the Urban panel so far, including #4 at KPRS and WEMX.
88.48
TW: 23, LW: 22, Spins: +121

Hot AC
Hitmakers Kelly Clarkson and Pink have Proven Hits this week as their current singles, "Catch My Breath" and "Try," appear headed straight for the top. They are joined as Hot AC Proven Hits by the band Of Monsters and Men, whose single "Little Talks" is crossing over from Alternative, where it went #1, to Hot AC.
Developing Hit
Score
UpOverjoyed
Matchbox Twenty (Atlantic)
HitPredictor on Nov 5, 2012 -- Movers: a top 15 gainer at Hot AC, up almost 100 spins this week.
103.50
TW: 30, LW: 37, Spins: +91
Proven Hits
Score
UpTry
Pink (RCA)
HitPredictor on Oct 29, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 7 Hot AC stations this week, led by a #3 rank for Patti Marshall at WKRQ.
95.40
TW: 20, LW: 24, Spins: +367
UpCatch My Breath
Kelly Clarkson (RCA)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 9 Hot AC stations this week; it's #7 for Jimmy Steele at KMYI.
66.10
TW: 17, LW: 20, Spins: +303
UpLittle Talks
Of Monsters and Men (Republic)
Callout: top 10 with early believers this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 24 Hot AC stations this week, including #1 at KAMX and KCIX.
TW: 12, LW: 13, Spins: +221

Mainstream AC
...
Proven Hits
Score
UpGood Time (with Carly Rae Jepsen)
Owl City (Interscope/Republic)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 21 AC stations this week, including #1 for Chuck Knight at WBEB and Bobby D at WARM.
77.79
TW: 14, LW: 15, Spins: +48
HoldingSome Nights
fun. (Fueled By Ramen/RRP)
Callout: top 5 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 11 AC stations this week; it's #2 for Chris Baker at KYIS.
TW: 18, LW: 18, Spins: +18

Alternative
The Killers have a long track record of success at Alternative Radio, with some of their songs crossing over to other formats. The first single, "Runaways," from their current album, "Battle Born," went to #6 at Alternative radio. Their follow-up single, "Miss Atomic Bomb," is a Developing Hit this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpMiss Atomic Bomb
Killers (Island/IDJMG)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Alternative, up almost 100 spins this week.
TW: 25, LW: 36, Spins: +99

Active Rock
P.O.D. has had great acclaim and commercial success-over 12 million records sold worldwide--in their two-decade recording career, and the hits are still coming. Their current single, "Higher," is a Developing Hit at Active Rock this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpHigher
P.O.D. (Razor & Tie)
Movers: a top 10 gainer this week at Active Rock, up over 75 spins.
TW: 32, LW: 40, Spins: +78
Proven Hit
Score
UpLeft For You
Nonpoint (Razor And Tie)
HitPredictor on Jul 30, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 9 Active Rock stations this week, led by #2 at WZOR.
72.25
TW: 20, LW: 21, Spins: +48

Country
The Eli Young Band has scored 2 #1 hits at Country radio, and their current single, "Say Goodnight," is following in the same path. It's a Proven Hit this week at Country.
Proven Hit
Score
DownSay Goodnight
Eli Young Band (Republic Nashville)
Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national callout this week. Top 10 Spins: 2 stations lead the way with top 10 spins, # 9 at WGNE and #10 at KILT.
TW: 29, LW: 28, Spins: +153