Monday, November 19, 2012

We have a mix of seasoned and new artists in the HitPredictor spotlight this week. Alicia Keys returns to the charts with "Girl on Fire." The song peaked at #14 on the Urban radio chart and is now crossing over to the Top 40 and Rhythmic charts. It's a HitPredictor this week at the Top 40 format, along with "Don't You Worry Child," the first major hit for the Swedish House Mafia. They are one of the world's leading EDM acts and now seem ready to conquer the U.S. pop charts.

Mainstream Top 40
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Score
Up66.45
 New Girl On Fire
Alicia Keys (RCA)
Up74.11
 New Dont You Worry Child
Swedish House Mafia (Astralwerks)

Rhythmic Top 40
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Score
No new adds in Rhythmic Top 40

Urban
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Score
Up68.85
 New Neva End
Future (Epic)
Up65.55
 New Ball (feat Lil Wayne)
T.I. (Grand Hustle/Atlantic)

Hot AC
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Score
Up66.91
 New Daylight
Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone/Interscope)
Up75.24
 New Come Along
Vicci Martinez (Republic)

Mainstream AC
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Score
Up105.30
 New Catch My Breath
Kelly Clarkson (RCA)

Alternative
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Score
Down97.15
 New Miss Atomic Bomb
The Killers (IDJMG)

Active Rock
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Score
Up65.72
 New Higher
P.O.D. (Razor And Tie)

Country
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Score
Up78.00
 New Better Dig Two
Band Perry (Republic Nashville)

About the HitPredictor Charts

These charts show new releases that tested with hit potential prior to airplay, ranked in order of current weekly Mediabase airplay detections.

Mainstream Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Pink
3
Down
Maroon 5
4
Up
Taylor Swift
5
Down
Adele

Rhythmic Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Usher
2
Up
Beyonce
3
Down
Adele
4
Up
Keri Hilson
5
Up
Justin Timberlake

R&B/Hip Hop
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Beyonce
2
Keri Hilson
3
Up
Brandy
4
Down
Usher
5
Up
Mary J Blige

Hot AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Adele
2
Up
Christina Perri
3
Kelly Clarkson
4
Maroon 5
5
Up
Pink

Mainstream AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Tim McGraw
3
Lady Antebellum
4
Up
Billy Joel
5
Up
Chicago

Alternative
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Rank TW
1
White Stripes
2
Foo Fighters
3
Up
Green Day
4
Pearl Jam
5
Up
Three Days Grace

Active Rock
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Rank TW
1
Godsmack
2
Up
Green Day
3
Up
Slipknot
4
Up
Pearl Jam
5
Down
Disturbed

Country
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
George Strait
2
Up
Martina McBride
3
Up
Tim McGraw
4
Down
Brad Paisley
5
Up
Jason Aldean

Every week we track songs before and after they become Hitpredictors, and we call them our Sleepers and Developing & Proven Hits. "Developing Hits" are a select number of songs that show early research potential, or strong upward spin moves at the stations they are played at. "Proven Hits" are songs that show Top 10 research and/or Top 10 spins at multiple key stations in a format.

Mainstream Top 40
Two artists new to Top 40 radio are causing waves on the chart. "Wanted" by Hunter Hayes and "It's Time" by Imagine Dragons were just named HitPredictors at Top 40 last week, and already this week these singles are Proven Hits, with top 5 potential in callout from early believers.
Proven Hits
Score
UpWanted
Hunter Hayes (Atlantic/RRP)
HitPredictor on Nov 12, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 callout potential with early believers. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 4 Top 40 stations so far; it's already #2 for Jammer at WEZB.
78.79
TW: 36, LW: 42, Spins: +306
UpIts Time
Imagine Dragons (KidinaKorner/Interscope)
HitPredictor on Nov 12, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 callout potential with early believers. Top 10 Spins: 4 early top-10 reports at Top 40 radio, led by #7 for Rich Davis at KDWB and also #7 for David Edgar at WKST.
66.57
TW: 29, LW: 37, Spins: +362

Rhythmic Top 40
Three collaborations are in the spotlight on the Rhythmic charts this week. Ludacris has wisely chosen to team up with Usher & David Guetta on his new single "Rest of My Life." And Justin Bieber teams up with Nicki Minaj for "Beauty and a Beat," named a HitPredictor at Rhythmic just last week. Both are Developing Hits this week. Meanwhile, Meek Mill's "Young and Gettin It," featuring Kirko, is a Proven Hit a Rhythmic this week.
Developing Hits
Score
UpBeauty And A Beat (feat Nicki Minaj)
Justin Bieber (Island/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Nov 12, 2012 -- Movers: the #3 gainer at Rhythmic this week, up almost 450 spins.
67.33
TW: 26, LW: 33, Spins: +445
UpRest of My Life
Ludacris Feat. Usher & David Guetta (DTP/Def Jam/IDJMG)
Movers: a top 5 gainer at Rhythmic this week, up over 350 spins.
TW: 41, LW: 56, Spins: +358
Proven Hit
Score
UpYoung and Gettin It
Meek Mill feat. Kirko (MMG/Warner Bros.)
Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: 6 stations on the Rhythmic panel have it in their top 10 most-played this week; it's top 5 for Ebro Darden at WQHT.
TW: 22, LW: 27, Spins: +182

Urban
At Urban radio, Miguel is a Developing Hit with "Do You," the follow-up to his #1 Urban and Rhythmic hit, "Adorn." He is joined as a Developing Hit by 2 Chainz with "I'm Different." Meanwhile, Ludacris follows the common marketing strategy of releasing different tracks to different radio formats and it's working well for him. "Representin'" featuring Kelly Rowland is a Proven Hit at Urban radio this week, while "Rest of My Life" is a Developing Hit at Rhythmic.
Developing Hits
Score
UpI'm Different
2 Chainz (Def Jam IDJMG)
Movers: the #2 gainer at Urban radio this week, up over 400 spins.
TW: 26, LW: 37, Spins: +436
UpDo You
Miguel (RCA)
Movers: a top 5 gainer at Urban radio this week, up almost 250 spins.
TW: 32, LW: 43, Spins: +247
Proven Hits
Score
UpRepresentin (feat Kelly Rowland)
Ludacris (DTG/Def Jam/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: it's top 10 at 11 stations on the Urban panel, including #4 at WGZB and #5 at KKDA.
91.36
TW: 16, LW: 18, Spins: +139
UpWicked Games
The Weeknd (XO/Republic)
HitPredictor on Oct 22, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 12 stations on the Urban panel, led by #3 for Teresa Terry at WIKS.
75.00
TW: 17, LW: 19, Spins: +223
UpSorry
Ciara (Epic)
HitPredictor on Nov 5, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: it's top 10 at 10 stations on the Urban panel so far, led by #1 for Rob Neal at WJZD.
68.10
TW: 22, LW: 24, Spins: +197

Hot AC
"Wanted" by Hunter Hayes, a Proven Hit at Top 40 this week, is also a Developing Hit at Hot AC. He is joined by veteran British band Muse, whose #1 Alternative Hit, "Madness," is now crossing to Hot AC.
Developing Hits
Score
UpWanted
Hunter Hayes (Atlantic/RRP)
HitPredictor on Nov 12, 2012 -- Movers: a top 15 gainer at Hot AC, up over 100 spins this week.
72.75
TW: 29, LW: 34, Spins: +174
UpMadness
Muse (Warner Bros.)
Movers: a top 15 gainer at Hot AC, up over 75 spins this week.
TW: 32, LW: 39, Spins: +123

Mainstream AC
Ed Sheeran's multi-format hit "The A Team" has already become a Proven Hit at Top 40 and Hot AC. And it is now a Developing Hit in the Mainstream AC format.
Developing Hit
Score
DownThe A Team
Ed Sheeran (Atlantic)
Movers: a top 5 gainer this week at AC, up almost 50 spins.
TW: 33, LW: 31, Spins: +28
Proven Hit
Score
HoldingGood Morning Beautfiul
Luke McMaster & Jim Brickman (Mood/Brickhouse/Ekul)
Callout: top 15 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 spins: top 10 at 14 AC stations this week; it's #1 for Stan Atkinson at WLDB.
TW: 17, LW: 17, Spins: -8

Alternative
Matt & Kim, the Brooklyn-based duo, has been garnering some acclaim and sales in the last few years, but now they seemed poised to score their first radio hit as "Let's Go" is a Developing Hit at Alternative this week. It's the first single from their fourth album, "Lightning."
Developing Hits
Score
UpLet's Go
Matt and Kim (Fader)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Alternative, up almost 70 spins this week.
TW: 24, LW: 27, Spins: +69
UpBreathing Underwater
Metric (Metric/Mom + Pop)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Alternative, up almost 50 spins this week.
TW: 20, LW: 21, Spins: +44

Active Rock
Hellyeah and Hollywood Undead, two bands with colorful names, have Developing Hits this week at Active Rock. Hellyeah's single "Drink Drank Drunk" is from their current album "Band of Brothers," released in July. Hollywood Undead's “We Are” is from their forthcoming album, "Notes from the Underground."
Developing Hits
Score
UpDrink Drank Drunk
Hellyeah (Eleven Seven)
Movers: a top 10 gainer this week at Active Rock, up over 50 spins.
TW: 25, LW: 27, Spins: +60
UpWe Are
Hollywood Undead (A&M/Octone/Interscope)
Movers: a top 15 gainer this week at Active Rock, up almost 50 spins.
TW: 38, LW: 42, Spins: +48

Country
It's all established male artists in the spotlight this week at Country Radio. While Jason Aldean, Tim McGraw and Toby Keith all have Developing Hits with their current singles, Little Big Town has the only Proven Hit this week. It's "Tornado," the title track from their fifth studio album.
Developing Hits
Score
UpThe Only Way I Know
Jason Aldean (Broken Bow)
HitPredictor on Nov 12, 2012 -- Movers: the #2 gainer this week at Country radio, up over 750 spins.
102.80
TW: 21, LW: 25, Spins: +768
UpOne of Those Nights
Tim McGraw (Big Machine)
Movers: a top 5 gainer this week at Country, up over 500 spins.
TW: 29, LW: 37, Spins: +523
UpHope on The Rocks
Toby Keith (Show Dog/Universal)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at the Country format, up almost 250 spins this week.
TW: 44, LW: 63, Spins: +245
Proven Hit
Score
UpTornado
Little Big Town (Capitol Nashville)
Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 6 Country stations so far, with Houston leading the way; it's #6 at KILT and #7 at KKBQ.
TW: 18, LW: 22, Spins: +389