Monday, November 26, 2012

Calvin Harris is back with a new song and a new label. He scored two top 10 radio hits on the indie label Ultra this year, and now he's been picked up by Roc Nation/Columbia. He kicks off his new deal with a bang as "Sweet Nothing" featuring Florence Welch is a HitPredictor at Top 40 this week.

Mainstream Top 40
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Score
Up70.00
 New Sweet Nothing (feat Florence Welch)
Calvin Harris (Ultra/Roc Nation/Columbia)

Rhythmic Top 40
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Score
Down75.55
 New No Worries
Lil Wayne (Republic)

Urban
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Score
No new adds in Urban

Hot AC
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Score
Up71.39
 New Let Me Love You
Ne-Yo (Motown/IDJMG)

Mainstream AC
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Score
No new adds in Mainstream AC

Alternative
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Score
No new adds in Alternative

Active Rock
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Score
No new adds in Active Rock

Country
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Score
Up91.30
 New One Of Those Nights
Tim McGraw (Big Machine)

About the HitPredictor Charts

These charts show new releases that tested with hit potential prior to airplay, ranked in order of current weekly Mediabase airplay detections.

Mainstream Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Pink
3
Down
Maroon 5
4
Up
Taylor Swift
5
Down
Adele

Rhythmic Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Usher
2
Up
Beyonce
3
Down
Adele
4
Up
Keri Hilson
5
Up
Justin Timberlake

R&B/Hip Hop
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Beyonce
2
Keri Hilson
3
Up
Brandy
4
Down
Usher
5
Up
Mary J Blige

Hot AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Adele
2
Up
Christina Perri
3
Kelly Clarkson
4
Maroon 5
5
Up
Pink

Mainstream AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Tim McGraw
3
Lady Antebellum
4
Up
Billy Joel
5
Up
Chicago

Alternative
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
White Stripes
2
Foo Fighters
3
Up
Green Day
4
Pearl Jam
5
Up
Three Days Grace

Active Rock
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Rank TW
1
Godsmack
2
Up
Green Day
3
Up
Slipknot
4
Up
Pearl Jam
5
Down
Disturbed

Country
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
George Strait
2
Up
Martina McBride
3
Up
Tim McGraw
4
Down
Brad Paisley
5
Up
Jason Aldean

Every week we track songs before and after they become Hitpredictors, and we call them our Sleepers and Developing & Proven Hits. "Developing Hits" are a select number of songs that show early research potential, or strong upward spin moves at the stations they are played at. "Proven Hits" are songs that show Top 10 research and/or Top 10 spins at multiple key stations in a format.

Mainstream Top 40
Last week's HitPredictors move up quickly to other honors this week. Swedish House Mafia moves up from HitPredictor last week to Developing Hit this week with their international smash, "Don't You Worry Child." And Alicia Keys, last week's other HitPredictor, jumps straight to Proven Hit this week with early callout results from selected markets looking strong. Similarly, good early callout pushes Justin Bieber's "Beauty and a Beat" to a Proven Hit this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpDont You Worry Child
Swedish House Mafia (Astralwerks)
HitPredictor on Nov 19, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer at Top 40 this week, up over 900 spins.
74.11
TW: 18, LW: 23, Spins: +905
Proven Hits
Score
UpBeauty And A Beat (feat Nicki Minaj)
Justin Bieber (Island/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Oct 29, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 callout potential with early believers. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 22 Top 40 stations so far, with top 5 rankings from KFRH and XHTO.
67.19
TW: 14, LW: 16, Spins: +956
UpGirl On Fire
Alicia Keys (RCA)
HitPredictor on Nov 19, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 callout with early believers. Top 10 Spins: 5 early top-10 reports at Top 40 radio, including #2 for Sue O'Neil at WKSE.
66.45
TW: 32, LW: 37, Spins: +351

Rhythmic Top 40
2 Chainz and the Weeknd have Developing Hits this week. "I'm Different" by 2 Chainz was a Developing Hit last week at the Urban format and duplicates that honor now at Rhythmic. "Wicked Games" by the Weeknd is already a Proven Hit at Urban and reaches Developing Hit status this week at Rhythmic.
Developing Hits
Score
UpWicked Games
The Weeknd (XO/Republic)
HitPredictor on Oct 29, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer at Rhythmic this week, up over 200 spins.
75.34
TW: 23, LW: 27, Spins: +213
UpI'm Different
2 Chainz (Def Jam/IDJMG)
Movers: a top 5 gainer at Rhythmic this week, up about 300 spins.
TW: 37, LW: 44, Spins: +300

Urban
At Urban radio, Big Sean's "Guap" and Omarion's "M.I.A." are among the 5 biggest gainers this week and are named Developing Hits. And two big multi-format stars, Chris Brown and T.I., reach Proven Hit status with their current singles, "Don't Judge Me" and "Ball," respectively. "Don't Judge Me" has so far been released only for the Urban format, while "Ball" is also gaining strength at Rhythmic radio.
Developing Hits
Score
UpM.I.A.
Omarion Feat. Wale (MMG/Warner Bros.)
Movers: a top 5 gainer at Urban radio this week, up almost 200 spins.
TW: 35, LW: 48, Spins: +190
UpGuap
Big Sean (G.O.O.D./Def Jam/IDJMG)
Movers: the #2 gainer at Urban radio, up almost 300 spins this week.
TW: 29, LW: 36, Spins: +271
Proven Hits
Score
UpDont Judge Me
Chris Brown (RCA)
HitPredictor on Sep 17, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 callout with early believers. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 24 stations on the Urban panel, led by #1 for Al Payne at WERQ.
101.30
TW: 11, LW: 12, Spins: +169
UpBall (feat Lil Wayne)
T.I. (Grand Hustle/Atlantic)
HitPredictor on Nov 19, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 9 stations on the Urban panel, led by #4 for Terry Avery at WPEG.
65.55
TW: 16, LW: 18, Spins: +165

Hot AC
Matchbox Twenty's newest hit, "Overjoyed," has moved quickly up the ladder at Hot AC, from HitPredictor three weeks ago to Developing Hit two weeks ago to a Proven Hit this week. Rihanna's "Diamonds" is crossing to Hot AC, with Developing Hit status this week, after achieving success at Top 40, Rhythmic and Urban radio. By contrast, Maroon 5's "Daylight" is breaking first at Hot AC, also reaching Developing Hit status this week after being named a HitPredictor last week.
Developing Hits
Score
UpDaylight
Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone/Interscope)
HitPredictor on Nov 19, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer at Hot AC, up around 175 spins this week.
66.91
TW: 38, LW: 43, Spins: +176
UpDiamonds
Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJMG)
Movers: a top 5 gainer at Hot AC, up almost 250 spins this week.
TW: 23, LW: 26, Spins: +243
Proven Hit
Score
UpOverjoyed
Matchbox Twenty (Atlantic)
HitPredictor on Nov 5, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 2 stations so far on the Hot AC panel, #6 for Ron Price at KMXP and #9 for Rob Brooks at KMXW.
103.50
TW: 25, LW: 27, Spins: +166

Alternative
The Killers have another hit at the Alternative format as "Miss Atomic Bomb" earns Proven Hit status this week after earlier being named a HitPredictor and a Developing Hit in the format. And Neon Trees follows up their multi-format smash "Everybody Talks" with "Lessons in Love." It's a Developing Hit at Alternative this week along with "Chalk Outline" by Three Days Grace, which already hit #1 at Active Rock.
Developing Hits
Score
UpChalk Outline
Three Days Grace (RCA)
HitPredictor on Aug 27, 2012 -- Movers: a top 5 gainer at Alternative, up almost 60 spins this week.
68.25
TW: 16, LW: 17, Spins: +58
UpLessons in Love
Neon Trees (Mercury/IDJMG)
Movers: a top 5 gainer at Alternative, up around 60 spins this week.
TW: 30, LW: 33, Spins: +60
Proven Hit
Score
UpMiss Atomic Bomb
Killers (IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Nov 19, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 4 stations on the Alternative panel, KNRK, KRBZ, WBOS and KITS.
97.15
TW: 24, LW: 27, Spins: +49

Active Rock
Veteran rockers Trapt have another hit on their hands as "Bring It" is named a Proven Hit at Active Rock this week. It's from their upcoming fifth album, "Reborn." And Otherwise has a Developing Hit at Active Rock with "I Don't Apologize (1000 Pictures)," from their upcoming debut album, "True Love Never Dies."
Developing Hit
Score
UpI Don't Apologize
Otherwise (Century Media/Sony/RED)
Movers: a top 5 gainer this week at Active Rock, up almost 70 spins.
TW: 31, LW: 33, Spins: +69
Proven Hit
Score
HoldingBring It
Trapt (Epochal Artists/EMI)
Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 4 stations on the Urban panel, led by #3 for Kristen Bergman at KQRA.
TW: 29, LW: 29, Spins: +22

Country
Jason Aldean's "The Only Way I Know" was a HitPredictor two weeks ago, a Developing Hit last week, and it moves up to Proven Hit status this week. Dierks Bentley shares the spotlight with Jason as Dierks' newest single, "Tip It On Back," is a Developing Hit this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpTip It On Back
Dierks Bentley (Capitol Nashville)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Country radio, up over 275 spins this week.
TW: 16, LW: 17, Spins: +273
Proven Hit
Score
UpThe Only Way I Know
Jason Aldean (Broken Bow)
HitPredictor on Nov 12, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 12 Country stations so far, led by #3 for Randy Chase at KCYY.
102.80
TW: 19, LW: 21, Spins: +479