Monday, December 10, 2012

There are three HitPredictors at Top 40 this week, including two big collaborations. Ludacris' collaboration with Usher and David Guetta, "Rest of My Life," was named a HitPredictor at Rhythmic last week and this week he earns HitPredictor honors at Top 40. Will.i.am's collaboration with Britney Spears, "Scream and Shout," was an immediate Developing Hit last week, due to strong early airplay gains, and this week it's a HitPredictor. Similarly, One Direction's "Little Things" was a Developing Hit last week at Top 40 and this week it is a HitPredictor.

Mainstream Top 40
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Score
Up72.07
 New Rest Of My Life (feat David Guetta and Usher)
Ludacris (DTP/Def Jam/IDJMG)
Up73.45
 New Little Things
One Direction (SYCO/Columbia)
Up67.67
 New Scream and Shout (with Britney Spears)
Will I Am (Interscope)

Rhythmic Top 40
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Score
No new adds in Rhythmic Top 40

Urban
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Score
No new adds in Urban

Hot AC
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Score
Up95.55
 New I Knew You Were Trouble
Taylor Swift (Big Machine)
Up80.20
 New Mermaid
Train (Columbia)

Mainstream AC
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Score
No new adds in Mainstream AC

Alternative
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Score
No new adds in Alternative

Active Rock
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Score
Up67.65
 New Save Me
Hinder (Republic)

Country
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Score
Up108.00
 New Give It All We Got Tonight
George Strait (MCA)

About the HitPredictor Charts

These charts show new releases that tested with hit potential prior to airplay, ranked in order of current weekly Mediabase airplay detections.

Mainstream Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Pink
3
Down
Maroon 5
4
Up
Taylor Swift
5
Down
Adele

Rhythmic Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Usher
2
Up
Beyonce
3
Down
Adele
4
Up
Keri Hilson
5
Up
Justin Timberlake

R&B/Hip Hop
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Beyonce
2
Keri Hilson
3
Up
Brandy
4
Down
Usher
5
Up
Mary J Blige

Hot AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Adele
2
Up
Christina Perri
3
Kelly Clarkson
4
Maroon 5
5
Up
Pink

Mainstream AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Tim McGraw
3
Lady Antebellum
4
Up
Billy Joel
5
Up
Chicago

Alternative
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
White Stripes
2
Foo Fighters
3
Up
Green Day
4
Pearl Jam
5
Up
Three Days Grace

Active Rock
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Godsmack
2
Up
Green Day
3
Up
Slipknot
4
Up
Pearl Jam
5
Down
Disturbed

Country
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
George Strait
2
Up
Martina McBride
3
Up
Tim McGraw
4
Down
Brad Paisley
5
Up
Jason Aldean

Every week we track songs before and after they become Hitpredictors, and we call them our Sleepers and Developing & Proven Hits. "Developing Hits" are a select number of songs that show early research potential, or strong upward spin moves at the stations they are played at. "Proven Hits" are songs that show Top 10 research and/or Top 10 spins at multiple key stations in a format.

Mainstream Top 40
Maroon 5's new single, "Daylight" has already been a HitPredictor at Hot AC and at Top 40. Now strong airplay gains make it a Developing Hit at Top 40 his week. Calvin Harris' "Sweet Nothing," featuring Florence Welch, moves right up to Proven Hit status this week, after being a HitPredictor two weeks ago and a Developing Hit last week. And Taylor Swift's "I Knew You Were Trouble" is also moving up quickly. It was a HitPredictor just last week and joins Calvin Harris as a Proven Hit at Top 40 this week. "Thrift Shop" by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis has been garnering airplay at two formats that rarely share songs, Alternative and Rhythmic. Now it's crossing to Top 40, aided by a humorous video. It's named a Sleeper at Top 40 this week due to early activity at key stations.
Developing Hit
Score
UpDaylight
Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone/Interscope)
HitPredictor on Dec 3, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer at Top 40 this week, up almost 900 spins.
82.88
TW: 27, LW: 37, Spins: +895
Proven Hits
Score
UpI Knew You Were Trouble
Taylor Swift (Big Machine)
HitPredictor on Dec 3, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 callout with early believers. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 10 top 40 stations this week, led by #5 for Tommy Chuck at WLFZ.
98.49
TW: 16, LW: 27, Spins: +2442
UpSweet Nothing (feat Florence Welch)
Calvin Harris (Ultra/Roc Nation/Columbia)
HitPredictor on Nov 26, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 callout with early believers. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 5 top 40 stations so far, led by #7 for John Ivey at KIIS and #8 for Sharon Dastur at Z100.
70.00
TW: 21, LW: 30, Spins: +718
Sleeper
Score
UpThrift Shop
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis featuring Wanz (Macklemore/ADA/WBR)
Although not on the top 40 chart yet, it has early support from major stations such as KEGY (#10), KAMP (#11), WNOW (#15) & KIIS (#18).
TW: 41, LW: 46, Spins: +99

Rhythmic Top 40
A$AP Rocky, a rapper from Harlem, N.Y., is causing waves at both Rhythmic and Urban radio with his single, "F**kin Problems," featuring Drake. It's a Developing Hit at both formats this week. There are two Proven hits at Rhythmic this week, Frank Ocean's "Thinkin Bout You" and The Weeknd's "Wicked Games." Both were already Proven Hits at the Urban format and are duplicating that success at Rhythmic.
Developing Hit
Score
UpF**kin Problems
A$AP Rocky featuring Drake (Polo Grounds/RCA)
Movers: the #2 gainer at Rhythmic this week, up over 300 spins.
TW: 26, LW: 37, Spins: +314
Proven Hits
Score
UpWicked Games
The Weeknd (XO/Republic)
HitPredictor on Oct 29, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 potential with early believers. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 8 Rhythmic stations, led by #3 for Mark McCray at KBFB.
75.34
TW: 19, LW: 22, Spins: +229
DownThinkin Bout You
Frank Ocean (Def Jam/IDJMG)
Callout: top 15 in RateTheMusic national research this week, and top 10 callout with early believers. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 24 Rhythmic stations this week, including #1 for Jason Kidd at WPGC.
TW: 12, LW: 11, Spins: +109

Urban
As mentioned above, A$AP Rocky has a Developing Hit in two formats this week, Urban and Rhythmic, with "F**kin Problems." Meanwhile, Miguel has his second consecutive Proven Hit at Urban with "Do You," the follow-up to his #1 "Adorn." And Wiz Khalifa has another in his string of hits as "Remember You," featuring The Weeknd, is also named a Proven Hit at Urban this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpF**kin Problems
A$AP Rocky featuring Drake (Polo Grounds/RCA)
Movers: the #1 gainer at Urban radio, up over 400 spins this week.
TW: 25, LW: 34, Spins: +418
Proven Hits
Score
UpDo You
Miguel (RCA)
HitPredictor on Dec 3, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 in RateTheMusic national research this week and top 10 potential with early believers. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 2 stations on the Urban panel so far, led by #6 for Stephen Harris at WIZF.
72.07
TW: 24, LW: 27, Spins: +112
UpRemember You (feat The Weekend)
Wiz Khalifa (Rostrum/Atlantic)
HitPredictor on Dec 3, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national research this week and top 10 potential with early believers. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 9 Urban stations this week, including #5 at WJZD and WRBJ.
66.51
TW: 17, LW: 19, Spins: +264

Hot AC
Ne-Yo's "Let Me Love You" is #4 this week on both the Rhythmic and Top 40 charts. Now he's conquering a third format as it's now a Developing hit at Hot AC. And Muse is also having multi-format success, as their #1 Alternative single, "Madness," is named a Proven Hit at Hot AC this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpLet Me Love You
Ne-Yo (RCA)
HitPredictor on Nov 26, 2012 -- Movers: a top 15 gainer at Hot AC, up over 100 spins this week.
71.39
TW: 26, LW: 27, Spins: +121
Proven Hit
Score
UpMadness
Muse (Warner Bros.)
Callout: top 10 in callout with early believers this week. Top 10 Spins: 3 early spin leaders with top-10 airplay, led by #5 for Brad Waldo at WCLI.
TW: 25, LW: 26, Spins: +141

Mainstream AC
Bruno Mars' "Locked Out of Heaven" now has strong activity in four radio formats. The song is top 5 at both Top 40 and Hot AC, top 10 at Rhythmic, and this week it's a Developing Hit at AC. That's no small accomplishment in a month when Christmas music dominates AC radio.
Developing Hit
Score
UpLocked Out of Heaven
Bruno Mars (Atlantic)
Movers: a top 15 gainer at AC, up almost 50 spins this week.
TW: 37, LW: 41, Spins: +43

Alternative
Churchill is breaking out at Alternative with their current single, "Change," from their EP with the same title. It's been steadily climbing the Alternative chart and it's named a Proven Hit this week.
Proven Hit
Score
HoldingChange
Churchill (A&M/Octone/Interscope)
Callout: top 15 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: it's top 10 at 4 Alternative stations this week, led by #7 for Christy Taylor at XTRA.
TW: 26, LW: 26, Spins: +69

Active Rock
Adelitas Way has already scored two #1 singles at Active Rock from their current album, and "Alive" may repeat that success. It was named a HitPredictor just last week, and now it's already a Proven Hit in the format.
Proven Hit
Score
UpAlive
Adelitas Way (Virgin/Capitol)
HitPredictor on Dec 3, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 3 Active Rock stations this week, led by #5 for John Perry at WIIL.
67.60
TW: 20, LW: 23, Spins: +90

Country
Husband-and-wife duo Thompson Square already have one #1 Country hit under their belt, and their new single, "If I Didn't Have You," is off to a good start. It's a Developing Hit at Country this week. And the hits keep on coming for Dierks Bentley and Tim McGraw, whose current singles are both Proven Hits at Country this week.
Developing Hit
Score
UpIf I Didn't Have You
Thompson Square (Stoney Creek)
Movers: a top 10 gainer at Country radio, up almost 375 spins this week.
TW: 28, LW: 32, Spins: +369
Proven Hits
Score
UpOne Of Those Nights
Tim McGraw (Big Machine)
HitPredictor on Nov 26, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 16 Country stations, including #1 for Randy Chase at KCYY and Nick Roberts at WHKO.
91.30
TW: 24, LW: 26, Spins: +534
UpTip It On Back
Dierks Bentley (Capitol Nashville)
Callout: top 10 callout with early believers this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 31 Country stations, including #2 for Karla Cantrell at KWEN and #3 for Gregg Swedberg at KEEY.
TW: 15, LW: 16, Spins: +244