Monday, December 17, 2012

Activity is slowing a bit this week as the labels wind down the 2012 chart year and prepare for the annual two-week holiday break. The next HitPredictor e-mail will be in your inbox on January 7, 2013.

Mainstream Top 40
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Score
No new adds in Mainstream Top 40

Rhythmic Top 40
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Score
Up74.92
 New Thrift Shop
Macklemore and Ryan Lewis (Macklemore/ADA)

Urban
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Score
No new adds in Urban

Hot AC
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Score
Up71.69
 New Dont You Worry Child
Swedish House Mafia (Astralwerks)

Mainstream AC
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Score
No new adds in Mainstream AC

Alternative
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Score
Up87.69
 New Stubborn Love
The Lumineers (Dualtone)

Active Rock
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Score
Up86.00
 New Where Did The Angels Go
Papa Roach (Sony/RED/Eleven Seven)
Up77.78
 New Dancing With The Dead
10 Years (Palehorse/ADA)

Country
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Score
Up92.50
 New I Drive Your Truck
Lee Brice (Curb)
Up81.25
 New Hope On The Rocks
Toby Keith (Show Dog/Universal)

About the HitPredictor Charts

These charts show new releases that tested with hit potential prior to airplay, ranked in order of current weekly Mediabase airplay detections.

Mainstream Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Maroon 5
3
Up
Adele
4
Down
Pink
5
Down
Taylor Swift

Rhythmic Top 40
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Justin Timberlake
2
Down
Usher
3
Down
Beyonce
4
Up
Ludacris
5
Up
Missy Elliott

R&B/Hip Hop
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Beyonce
2
Up
Brandy
3
Down
Keri Hilson
4
Up
Mary J Blige
5
Up
Mariah Carey

Hot AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Adele
2
Up
Kelly Clarkson
3
Up
Pink
4
Up
The Script
5
Down
Maroon 5

Mainstream AC
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Kelly Clarkson
2
Up
Chicago
3
Down
Tim McGraw
4
Up
Whitney Houston
5
Up
Rascal Flatts

Alternative
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Up
Green Day
2
Up
Three Days Grace
3
Up
Nine Inch Nails
4
Up
Staind
5
Down
White Stripes

Active Rock
Click for full Artist Chart
Rank TW
1
Godsmack
2
Up
Foo Fighters
3
Down
Green Day
4
Up
All That Remains
5
Disturbed

Country
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Rank TW
1
George Strait
2
Martina McBride
3
Tim McGraw
4
Up
Blake Shelton
5
Jason Aldean

Every week we track songs before and after they become Hitpredictors, and we call them our Sleepers and Developing & Proven Hits. "Developing Hits" are a select number of songs that show early research potential, or strong upward spin moves at the stations they are played at. "Proven Hits" are songs that show Top 10 research and/or Top 10 spins at multiple key stations in a format.

Mainstream Top 40
Maroon 5's new single, "Daylight" has the rare distinction of being a Proven Hit simultaneously in two formats this week, Top 40 and Hot AC. It's the follow up to Maroon 5's two recent #1 singles, "Payphone" and "One More Night."
Proven Hit
Score
UpDaylight
Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone/Interscope)
HitPredictor on Dec 3, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 callout with early believers. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 3 top 40 stations so far, including #10 for Ponch at KMXV.
82.88
TW: 27, LW: 37, Spins: +895

Rhythmic Top 40
Lil Wayne's "No Worries" is already a top 5 single at Urban radio. It was a HitPredictor at Rhythmic three weeks ago, and is moving steadily up the Rhythmic chart, named a Developing Hit this week. Alicia Keys' "Girl on Fire," is happening at four different radio formats, an impressive accomplishment for any artist. The song went top 15 at Urban, is already a Proven Hit at Top 40, is beginning to break at Hot AC, and this week it's a Proven Hit at Rhythmic.
Developing Hit
Score
UpNo Worries
Lil Wayne (YMCMB/Republic)
HitPredictor on Nov 26, 2012 -- Movers: top 15 gainer at Rhythmic this week, up almost 200 spins.
75.55
TW: 18, LW: 20, Spins: +156
Proven Hits
Score
UpGirl On Fire
Alicia Keys (RCA)
HitPredictor on Dec 3, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 11 Rhythmic stations this week, led by #3 for Mike Klein at WNVZ.
85.28
TW: 25, LW: 26, Spins: -47
UpVa Va Voom
Nicki Minaj (YMCMB/Republic)
HitPredictor on Nov 5, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 35 Rhythmic stations, including #3 for Dylan Sprague at WJMN and #4 for Rick Vaughn at WWVA.
73.16
TW: 9, LW: 12, Spins: +294
UpRest Of My Life (feat David Guetta and Usher)
Ludacris (DTP/Def Jam/IDJMG)
HitPredictor on Dec 3, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 potential with early believers. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 4 Rhythmic stations so far, led by #3 for Johnny O at KBFM.
68.33
TW: 23, LW: 27, Spins: +92

Hot AC
Train's first two singles from "California 37" both went top five at Hot AC. The third single, "Mermaid," is off to a fast start. It was a HitPredictor last week and moves up to Developing Hit status this week. And as mentioned above, Maroon 5's "Daylight" is a Proven Hit this week at both Hot AC and Top 40. Their first two singles from their album, "Overexposed," both went to #1 at Hot AC (and at Top 40).
Developing Hit
Score
UpMermaid
Train (Columbia)
HitPredictor on Dec 10, 2012 -- Movers: a top 10 gainer at Hot AC, up around 200 spins this week.
80.20
TW: 37, LW: 51, Spins: +178
Proven Hit
Score
UpDaylight
Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone/Interscope)
HitPredictor on Nov 19, 2012 -- Callout: top 10 in RateTheMusic national research this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 6 Hot AC stations so far, including #10 for Ron Harrell at WDVD and Maynard at KLCK.
66.91
TW: 24, LW: 30, Spins: +400

Alternative
Fun. is one of the biggest bands to break from the Alternative format in the last several years. Their last two singles, "We Are Young" and "Some Nights," were multi-format smash hits. Their newest single, "Carry On," is a Proven Hit at Alternative this week and we'll see if it follows the same path to multi-format success in the new year.
Proven Hit
Score
HoldingCarry On
FUN (Fueled By Ramen/RRP)
HitPredictor on Nov 12, 2012 -- Callout: top 15 in radio callout this week. Top 10 Spins: it's top 10 at 11 Alternative stations this week, led by #3 for John Allers at WRFF.
89.04
TW: 14, LW: 14, Spins: +31

Country
Carrie Underwood has had hits on the Top 40 and Hot AC charts, but Country radio has supported her music the most consistently. She's had two recent #1 hits at Country radio, "Blown Away" and "Good Girl." Her new single, "Two Cadillacs," seems poised to repeat that success. This week it's the #2 gainer at Country radio and a Proven Hit due to favorable early callout at radio.
Proven Hit
Score
UpTwo Black Cadillacs
Carrie Underwood (19/Arista)
HitPredictor on Dec 11, 2012 -- Callout: top 5 callout with early believers this week. Top 10 Spins: top 10 at 7 Country stations, led by #1 for Randy Chase at KCYY.
106.67
TW: 24, LW: 30, Spins: +764